Palermo U19 4–2 Salernitana U19: Result & Stats

Palermo U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Salernitana U19

11/9/2024

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 8Campo Pasqualino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Palermo U1950%

×Draw24%

Salernitana U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palermo U19Expected goals in this matchSalernitana U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.16

Palermo U19

1.71

Salernitana U19

1.16

Palermo U19 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 84 away

1.24

creates per match

1.10

1.22

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Palermo U19

1.24

Salernitana U19

1.10

allows per match

Palermo U19

1.22

Salernitana U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palermo U19+0.00on par

Salernitana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo U19 ↓

Salernitana U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Palermo U19 or draw

74%

Palermo U19 or Salernitana U19

76%

Draw or Salernitana U19

50%

Winning margin

Palermo U19 wins by 2+

27%

Salernitana U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Palermo U19 1+ goals

82%

Palermo U19 2+ goals

51%

Palermo U19 3+ goals

24%

Salernitana U19 1+ goals

69%

Salernitana U19 2+ goals

32%

Salernitana U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Palermo U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Salernitana U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo U19 at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

Salernitana U19 away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.18 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo U19 attack 1.24 + Salernitana U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.71

Salernitana U19 attack 1.10 + Palermo U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Palermo U19 scores more

50%

level

24%

Salernitana U19 scores more

26%

Palermo U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Palermo U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff