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Palermo U19 vs Pescara U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Palermo U19
Palermo U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pescara U19
Pescara U19
11/25/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 9Campo Pasqualino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Palermo U1938%
×Draw25%
Pescara U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palermo U19
1.48
Pescara U19
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 72 away

creates per match

Palermo U19
1.24
Pescara U19
1.75

allows per match

Palermo U19
1.22
Pescara U19
1.71

finishing

Palermo U19+0.00on par
Pescara U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo U19 ↓

Pescara U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Palermo U19 or draw
62%
Palermo U19 or Pescara U19
75%
Draw or Pescara U19
62%

Winning margin

Palermo U19 wins by 2+
18%
Pescara U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Palermo U19 1+ goals
77%
Palermo U19 2+ goals
43%
Palermo U19 3+ goals
19%
Pescara U19 1+ goals
77%
Pescara U19 2+ goals
43%
Pescara U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Palermo U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Pescara U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo U19 at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

Pescara U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo U19 attack 1.24 + Pescara U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Pescara U19 attack 1.75 + Palermo U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Palermo U19 scores more
38%
level
25%
Pescara U19 scores more
38%

Palermo U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Palermo U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palermo U19 vs Pescara U19

Palermo U19 beat Pescara U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Pasqualino in Carini.