Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Palermo U19 vs Cesena U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Palermo U19
Palermo U19
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Cesena U19
Cesena U19
Unknown 90+1', 62'
Unknown 89', 69', 61', 45+1'
4/27/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 28Campo Pasqualino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Palermo U1927%
×Draw22%
Cesena U1951%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palermo U19
1.33
Cesena U19
1.90

Cesena U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 28 away

creates per match

Palermo U19
1.24
Cesena U19
2.57

allows per match

Palermo U19
1.22
Cesena U19
1.43

finishing

Palermo U19+0.00on par
Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Palermo U19 or draw
49%
Palermo U19 or Cesena U19
78%
Draw or Cesena U19
73%

Winning margin

Palermo U19 wins by 2+
11%
Cesena U19 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Palermo U19 1+ goals
74%
Palermo U19 2+ goals
38%
Palermo U19 3+ goals
15%
Cesena U19 1+ goals
85%
Cesena U19 2+ goals
56%
Cesena U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Palermo U19 (draw refunded)
35%
Cesena U19 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo U19 at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo U19 attack 1.24 + Cesena U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cesena U19 attack 2.57 + Palermo U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Palermo U19 scores more
27%
level
22%
Cesena U19 scores more
51%

Cesena U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cesena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
61'
62'
69'
89'
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palermo U19 vs Cesena U19

Cesena U19 beat Palermo U19 4-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on April 27, 2024.

Goals: ? (45+1', 61', 62', 69', 89', 90+1').

The match was played at Campo Pasqualino in Carini.