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Palencia CF vs Ribert — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Palencia CF
Palencia CF
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ribert
Ribert
2/19/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 24Campo 1 de la Amistad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Palencia CF56%
×Draw23%
Ribert21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palencia CF
1.77
Ribert
0.99

Palencia CF creates 79% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 16 away

creates per match

Palencia CF
1.67
Ribert
0.94

allows per match

Palencia CF
1.04
Ribert
1.88

finishing

Palencia CF+0.00on par
Ribert+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palencia CF ↓

Ribert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Palencia CF or draw
79%
Palencia CF or Ribert
77%
Draw or Ribert
44%

Winning margin

Palencia CF wins by 2+
31%
Ribert wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Palencia CF 1+ goals
83%
Palencia CF 2+ goals
53%
Palencia CF 3+ goals
26%
Ribert 1+ goals
63%
Ribert 2+ goals
26%
Ribert 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Palencia CF (draw refunded)
73%
Ribert (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palencia CF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Ribert away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palencia CF attack 1.67 + Ribert defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ribert attack 0.94 + Palencia CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Palencia CF scores more
56%
level
23%
Ribert scores more
21%

Palencia CF at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Palencia CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Palencia CF 0–0 Ribert

Palencia CF and Ribert drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Campo 1 de la Amistad in Palencia.