Palencia CF 3–3 Real Ávila: Result & Stats

Palencia CF

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Real Ávila

Hajimari Ceesay 77'

Garban 42'

Saúl 17'

Javier de Mesa 70'

Rengel 39'

Ivi 33'

9/26/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 4Campo 1 de la Amistad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Palencia CF41%

×Draw28%

Real Ávila31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palencia CFExpected goals in this matchReal Ávila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.09

Palencia CF

1.29

Real Ávila

1.09

Palencia CF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 76 away

1.67

creates per match

1.14

1.04

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Palencia CF

1.67

Real Ávila

1.14

allows per match

Palencia CF

1.04

Real Ávila

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palencia CF+0.00on par

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palencia CF ↓

Real Ávila →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Palencia CF or draw

69%

Palencia CF or Real Ávila

72%

Draw or Real Ávila

59%

Winning margin

Palencia CF wins by 2+

18%

Real Ávila wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Palencia CF 1+ goals

72%

Palencia CF 2+ goals

37%

Palencia CF 3+ goals

14%

Real Ávila 1+ goals

66%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

30%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Palencia CF (draw refunded)

57%

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Palencia CF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Real Ávila away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.91 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Palencia CF attack 1.67 + Real Ávila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.29

Real Ávila attack 1.14 + Palencia CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Palencia CF scores more

41%

level

28%

Real Ávila scores more

31%

Palencia CF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Palencia CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

33'

39'

42'

53'

Julián Hernández← Jou Luna

53'

Álex Ortolà← Rengel

53'

Roberto Rodríguez← Juanpe Bonoha

66'

Mito Martín← Garban

66'

Franco← Ander Mediavilla

70'

Javier de Mesa

73'

Viti García← Fernando Sánchez

77'

Hajimari Ceesay

79'

Mikel Prieto← Saúl

80'

Andrés Espada← Ivi

Palencia

Real

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Ivi

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Garban

Donoso

⚽

▼

Saúl

Manager: Pechu

66'▲Mito Martín←▼Garban

66'▲Franco←▼Ander Mediavilla

73'▲Viti García←▼Fernando Sánchez

79'▲Mikel Prieto←▼Saúl

Palencia CF substitutes

MartínFrancoGarcíaPrieto

Manager: Borja Rubiato

53'▲Julián Hernández←▼Jou Luna

53'▲Álex Ortolà←▼Rengel

53'▲Roberto Rodríguez←▼Juanpe Bonoha

80'▲Andrés Espada←▼Ivi

Real Ávila substitutes

HernándezOrtolàRodríguezEspada