Palencia CF 0–1 Mojados: Result & Stats

Palencia CF

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mojados

Mateo Rodríguez 67'

4/5/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 31Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Palencia CF56%

×Draw24%

Mojados21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palencia CFExpected goals in this matchMojados

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.95

Palencia CF

1.73

Mojados

0.95

Palencia CF creates 82% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 35 away

1.67

creates per match

0.86

1.04

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Palencia CF

1.67

Mojados

0.86

allows per match

Palencia CF

1.04

Mojados

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palencia CF+0.00on par

Mojados+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palencia CF ↓

Mojados →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Palencia CF or draw

79%

Palencia CF or Mojados

76%

Draw or Mojados

44%

Winning margin

Palencia CF wins by 2+

31%

Mojados wins by 2+

Team goals

Palencia CF 1+ goals

82%

Palencia CF 2+ goals

52%

Palencia CF 3+ goals

25%

Mojados 1+ goals

61%

Mojados 2+ goals

25%

Mojados 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Palencia CF (draw refunded)

73%

Mojados (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Palencia CF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Mojados away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.80 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Palencia CF attack 1.67 + Mojados defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Mojados attack 0.86 + Palencia CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Palencia CF scores more

56%

level

24%

Mojados scores more

21%

Palencia CF at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Palencia CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Gerard Puerto← Jorge Rodríguez

58'

Víctor Díez← Marcos González

62'

Jorge Delgado← Álvi Gil

67'

Mateo Rodríguez

74'

Adri Herrera← Adrián Calvo

76'

Jorge Suárez← Álvaro Colino

76'

Alfonso García← Javi Cerro

78'

Haji Ceesay← Héctor Blanco

81'

David Anta← R. Cadaveira

Palencia

Mojados

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Miñambres

46'▲Gerard Puerto←▼Jorge Rodríguez

58'▲Víctor Díez←▼Marcos González

74'▲Adri Herrera←▼Adrián Calvo

78'▲Haji Ceesay←▼Héctor Blanco

Palencia CF substitutes

PuertoDíezHerreraCeesay

Manager: Diego Macón

62'▲Jorge Delgado←▼Álvi Gil

76'▲Jorge Suárez←▼Álvaro Colino

76'▲Alfonso García←▼Javi Cerro

81'▲David Anta←▼R. Cadaveira

Mojados substitutes

DelgadoSuárezGarcíaAnta

Match Recap: Palencia CF vs Mojados

Mojados beat Palencia CF 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 5, 2025.

Goals: Mateo Rodríguez (67').

The match was played at Estadio La Nueva Balastera in Palencia.

Palencia CF vs Mojados — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Palencia CF vs Mojados