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Palencia CF vs Laguna de Duero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Palencia CF
Palencia CF
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
10/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 9Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Palencia CF63%
×Draw21%
Laguna de Duero16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palencia CF
2.04
Laguna de Duero
0.92

Palencia CF creates 122% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 35 away

creates per match

Palencia CF
1.67
Laguna de Duero
0.80

allows per match

Palencia CF
1.04
Laguna de Duero
2.40

finishing

Palencia CF+0.00on par
Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palencia CF ↓

Laguna de Duero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Palencia CF or draw
84%
Palencia CF or Laguna de Duero
79%
Draw or Laguna de Duero
37%

Winning margin

Palencia CF wins by 2+
39%
Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Palencia CF 1+ goals
87%
Palencia CF 2+ goals
60%
Palencia CF 3+ goals
33%
Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
60%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
23%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Palencia CF (draw refunded)
80%
Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palencia CF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Laguna de Duero away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palencia CF attack 1.67 + Laguna de Duero defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.04

Laguna de Duero attack 0.80 + Palencia CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Palencia CF scores more
63%
level
21%
Laguna de Duero scores more
16%

Palencia CF at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Palencia CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Palencia CF 4 – 0 Laguna de Duero

Palencia CF beat Laguna de Duero 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Nueva Balastera in Palencia.