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Palencia CF vs Ciudad Rodrigo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Palencia CF
Palencia CF
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ciudad Rodrigo
Ciudad Rodrigo
2/2/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 18Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Palencia CF59%
×Draw23%
Ciudad Rodrigo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palencia CF
1.83
Ciudad Rodrigo
0.89

Palencia CF creates 106% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

creates per match

Palencia CF
1.67
Ciudad Rodrigo
0.74

allows per match

Palencia CF
1.04
Ciudad Rodrigo
2.00

finishing

Palencia CF+0.00on par
Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palencia CF ↓

Ciudad Rodrigo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Palencia CF or draw
82%
Palencia CF or Ciudad Rodrigo
77%
Draw or Ciudad Rodrigo
41%

Winning margin

Palencia CF wins by 2+
34%
Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Palencia CF 1+ goals
84%
Palencia CF 2+ goals
54%
Palencia CF 3+ goals
28%
Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals
59%
Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals
22%
Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Palencia CF (draw refunded)
77%
Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palencia CF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Ciudad Rodrigo away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palencia CF attack 1.67 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 0.74 + Palencia CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Palencia CF scores more
59%
level
23%
Ciudad Rodrigo scores more
18%

Palencia CF at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Palencia CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palencia CF vs Ciudad Rodrigo

Palencia CF beat Ciudad Rodrigo 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Nueva Balastera in Palencia.