Palencia CF 0–1 Burgos Promesas: Result & Stats

Palencia CF

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burgos Promesas

Pablo Sagredo 90'

11/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 11Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Palencia CF43%

×Draw28%

Burgos Promesas29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palencia CFExpected goals in this matchBurgos Promesas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.03

Palencia CF

1.30

Burgos Promesas

1.03

Palencia CF creates 26% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 63 away

1.67

creates per match

1.02

1.04

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Palencia CF

1.67

Burgos Promesas

1.02

allows per match

Palencia CF

1.04

Burgos Promesas

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palencia CF+0.00on par

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palencia CF ↓

Burgos Promesas →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Palencia CF or draw

71%

Palencia CF or Burgos Promesas

72%

Draw or Burgos Promesas

57%

Winning margin

Palencia CF wins by 2+

19%

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Palencia CF 1+ goals

73%

Palencia CF 2+ goals

37%

Palencia CF 3+ goals

14%

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals

64%

Burgos Promesas 2+ goals

28%

Burgos Promesas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Palencia CF (draw refunded)

59%

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Palencia CF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Burgos Promesas away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Palencia CF attack 1.67 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.30

Burgos Promesas attack 1.02 + Palencia CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Palencia CF scores more

43%

level

28%

Burgos Promesas scores more

29%

Palencia CF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Palencia CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Iván Niño← L. Toty

62'

Héctor Blanco← Emilio Iglesias

70'

Javier Vidorreta← David Vallecillo

70'

Fer Muriel← Gerard Puerto

74'

Pablo Sagredo← Iván Niño

74'

Fermín García← Ethan

86'

Adri Herrera← Víctor Díez

90+1'

Abdoulaye Maiga← Jan Martínez

90'

Pablo Sagredo

Palencia

Burgos

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jonathan Prado

62'▲Héctor Blanco←▼Emilio Iglesias

70'▲Javier Vidorreta←▼David Vallecillo

70'▲Fer Muriel←▼Gerard Puerto

86'▲Adri Herrera←▼Víctor Díez

Palencia CF substitutes

BlancoVidorretaMurielHerrera

Manager: Álex Albístegui

3'▲Iván Niño←▼L. Toty

74'▲Pablo Sagredo←▼Iván Niño

74'▲Fermín García←▼Ethan

90+1'▲Abdoulaye Maiga←▼Jan Martínez

Burgos Promesas substitutes

NiñoSagredoGarcíaMaiga

Match Recap: Palencia CF vs Burgos Promesas

Burgos Promesas beat Palencia CF 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 10, 2024.

Goals: Pablo Sagredo (90').

The match was played at Estadio La Nueva Balastera in Palencia.

Palencia CF vs Burgos Promesas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Palencia CF vs Burgos Promesas