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Palanga vs Suduva Marijampole — A Lyga 2026

Palanga
Palanga
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
10/12/2019A LygaA Lyga · Round 27Centrinis miesto stadionas (Palanga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Palanga23%
×Draw23%
Suduva Marijampole54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palanga
1.15
Suduva Marijampole
1.88

Suduva Marijampole creates 63% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 127 away

creates per match

Palanga
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.39

allows per match

Palanga
2.36
Suduva Marijampole
1.30

finishing

Palanga+0.00on par
Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palanga ↓

Suduva Marijampole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Palanga or draw
46%
Palanga or Suduva Marijampole
77%
Draw or Suduva Marijampole
77%

Winning margin

Palanga wins by 2+
9%
Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Palanga 1+ goals
68%
Palanga 2+ goals
32%
Palanga 3+ goals
11%
Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals
85%
Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals
56%
Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Palanga (draw refunded)
30%
Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palanga at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

Suduva Marijampole away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.30 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palanga attack 1.00 + Suduva Marijampole defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.39 + Palanga defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Palanga scores more
23%
level
23%
Suduva Marijampole scores more
54%

Suduva Marijampole at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A Lyga: Palanga 0–4 Suduva Marijampole

Suduva Marijampole beat Palanga 4-0 in A Lyga on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Centrinis miesto stadionas (Palanga).