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Palanga vs Nevėžis — 1 Lyga 2026

Palanga
Palanga
FT
6 – 2
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
8/2/20151 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 20Centrinis miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Palanga27%
×Draw18%
Nevėžis56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palanga
1.99
Nevėžis
2.87

Nevėžis creates 44% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 89 away

creates per match

Palanga
2.60
Nevėžis
1.74

allows per match

Palanga
4.00
Nevėžis
1.38

finishing

Palanga+0.00on par
Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palanga ↓

Nevėžis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Palanga or draw
44%
Palanga or Nevėžis
82%
Draw or Nevėžis
73%

Winning margin

Palanga wins by 2+
13%
Nevėžis wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Palanga 1+ goals
86%
Palanga 2+ goals
59%
Palanga 3+ goals
32%
Nevėžis 1+ goals
94%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
77%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Palanga (draw refunded)
32%
Nevėžis (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palanga at home — creates 2.60, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palanga attack 2.60 + Nevėžis defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.99

Nevėžis attack 1.74 + Palanga defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Palanga scores more
27%
level
18%
Nevėžis scores more
56%

Nevėžis at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palanga vs Nevėžis

Palanga beat Nevėžis 6-2 in 1 Lyga on August 2, 2015.

The match was played at Centrinis miesto stadionas in Palanga.