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Palanga vs Kauno Žalgiris — A Lyga 2026

Palanga
Palanga
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
9/14/2019A LygaA Lyga · Round 23Centrinis miesto stadionas (Palanga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Palanga20%
×Draw22%
Kauno Žalgiris58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palanga
1.04
Kauno Žalgiris
1.91

Kauno Žalgiris creates 84% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 127 away

creates per match

Palanga
1.00
Kauno Žalgiris
1.46

allows per match

Palanga
2.36
Kauno Žalgiris
1.08

finishing

Palanga+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palanga ↓

Kauno Žalgiris →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Palanga or draw
42%
Palanga or Kauno Žalgiris
78%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris
80%

Winning margin

Palanga wins by 2+
7%
Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Palanga 1+ goals
65%
Palanga 2+ goals
28%
Palanga 3+ goals
9%
Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals
85%
Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals
57%
Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Palanga (draw refunded)
26%
Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palanga at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

Kauno Žalgiris away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palanga attack 1.00 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.46 + Palanga defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Palanga scores more
20%
level
22%
Kauno Žalgiris scores more
58%

Kauno Žalgiris at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palanga vs Kauno Žalgiris

Kauno Žalgiris beat Palanga 3-2 in A Lyga on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Centrinis miesto stadionas (Palanga).