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Palanga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — A Lyga 2026

Palanga
Palanga
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
4/27/2019A LygaA Lyga · Round 8Klaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė (Klaipėda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Palanga16%
×Draw20%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palanga
0.93
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.12

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 128% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 127 away

creates per match

Palanga
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.87

allows per match

Palanga
2.36
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.86

finishing

Palanga+0.00on par
FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palanga ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Palanga or draw
36%
Palanga or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
80%
Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
84%

Winning margin

Palanga wins by 2+
5%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Palanga 1+ goals
61%
Palanga 2+ goals
24%
Palanga 3+ goals
7%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
88%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
62%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Palanga (draw refunded)
19%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palanga at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 1.87, concedes 0.86 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palanga attack 1.00 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 1.87 + Palanga defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Palanga scores more
16%
level
20%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
64%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A Lyga: Palanga 1–4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FK Zalgiris Vilnius beat Palanga 4-1 in A Lyga on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Klaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė (Klaipėda).