Paksi SE II 4–2 Kecskeméti TE II: Result & Stats

Paksi SE II

FT

4 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Kecskeméti TE II

8/17/2022

NB III - Northwest · Közép - 4Paksi FC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Paksi SE II55%

×Draw22%

Kecskeméti TE II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paksi SE IIExpected goals in this matchKecskeméti TE II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.23

Paksi SE II

2.02

Kecskeméti TE II

1.23

Paksi SE II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 17 away

1.80

creates per match

1.18

1.29

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Paksi SE II

1.80

Kecskeméti TE II

1.18

allows per match

Paksi SE II

1.29

Kecskeméti TE II

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paksi SE II+0.00on par

Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paksi SE II ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Paksi SE II or draw

77%

Paksi SE II or Kecskeméti TE II

78%

Draw or Kecskeméti TE II

45%

Winning margin

Paksi SE II wins by 2+

33%

Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Paksi SE II 1+ goals

87%

Paksi SE II 2+ goals

60%

Paksi SE II 3+ goals

33%

Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals

71%

Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals

35%

Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Paksi SE II (draw refunded)

71%

Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paksi SE II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paksi SE II attack 1.80 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.02

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.18 + Paksi SE II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Paksi SE II scores more

55%

level

22%

Kecskeméti TE II scores more

23%

Paksi SE II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Paksi SE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff