Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Paksi SE II vs Iváncsa — NB III - Southwest 2019

Paksi SE II
Paksi SE II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Iváncsa
Iváncsa
3/3/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 18Paksi FC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Paksi SE II31%
×Draw22%
Iváncsa46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paksi SE II
1.53
Iváncsa
1.90

Iváncsa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Paksi SE II
1.91
Iváncsa
1.96

allows per match

Paksi SE II
1.84
Iváncsa
1.16

finishing

Paksi SE II+0.00on par
Iváncsa+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paksi SE II ↓

Iváncsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Paksi SE II or draw
54%
Paksi SE II or Iváncsa
78%
Draw or Iváncsa
69%

Winning margin

Paksi SE II wins by 2+
15%
Iváncsa wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Paksi SE II 1+ goals
78%
Paksi SE II 2+ goals
45%
Paksi SE II 3+ goals
20%
Iváncsa 1+ goals
85%
Iváncsa 2+ goals
56%
Iváncsa 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Paksi SE II (draw refunded)
40%
Iváncsa (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paksi SE II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Iváncsa away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paksi SE II attack 1.91 + Iváncsa defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.53

Iváncsa attack 1.96 + Paksi SE II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Paksi SE II scores more
31%
level
22%
Iváncsa scores more
46%

Iváncsa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Iváncsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paksi SE II vs Iváncsa

Iváncsa beat Paksi SE II 2-0 in NB III - Southwest on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Paksi FC Stadion in Paks.