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Paksi SE II vs Dunaföldvár — NB III - Southwest 2019

Paksi SE II
Paksi SE II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dunaföldvár
Dunaföldvár
3/9/2025NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 19Paksi FC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Paksi SE II58%
×Draw19%
Dunaföldvár23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paksi SE II
2.50
Dunaföldvár
1.54

Paksi SE II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Paksi SE II
1.91
Dunaföldvár
1.23

allows per match

Paksi SE II
1.84
Dunaföldvár
3.10

finishing

Paksi SE II+0.00on par
Dunaföldvár+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paksi SE II ↓

Dunaföldvár →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Paksi SE II or draw
77%
Paksi SE II or Dunaföldvár
81%
Draw or Dunaföldvár
42%

Winning margin

Paksi SE II wins by 2+
37%
Dunaföldvár wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Paksi SE II 1+ goals
92%
Paksi SE II 2+ goals
71%
Paksi SE II 3+ goals
45%
Dunaföldvár 1+ goals
79%
Dunaföldvár 2+ goals
45%
Dunaföldvár 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Paksi SE II (draw refunded)
72%
Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paksi SE II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Dunaföldvár away — creates 1.23, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paksi SE II attack 1.91 + Dunaföldvár defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.50

Dunaföldvár attack 1.23 + Paksi SE II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Paksi SE II scores more
58%
level
19%
Dunaföldvár scores more
23%

Paksi SE II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Paksi SE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Paksi SE II 2–0 Dunaföldvár

Paksi SE II beat Dunaföldvár 2-0 in NB III - Southwest on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Paksi FC Stadion in Paks.