Paks 2–1 Mezokovesd-zsory: Result & Stats

Paks

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mezokovesd-zsory

4/27/2024

League #271 · Round 30Paksi FC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Paks67%

×Draw20%

Mezokovesd-zsory14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaksExpected goals in this matchMezokovesd-zsory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.83

Paks

2.10

Mezokovesd-zsory

0.83

Paks creates 153% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.20

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Paks

2.20

Mezokovesd-zsory

0.67

allows per match

Paks

1.00

Mezokovesd-zsory

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paks+0.00on par

Mezokovesd-zsory+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paks ↓

Mezokovesd-zsory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Paks or draw

86%

Paks or Mezokovesd-zsory

80%

Draw or Mezokovesd-zsory

33%

Winning margin

Paks wins by 2+

42%

Mezokovesd-zsory wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Paks 1+ goals

88%

Paks 2+ goals

62%

Paks 3+ goals

35%

Mezokovesd-zsory 1+ goals

56%

Mezokovesd-zsory 2+ goals

20%

Mezokovesd-zsory 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Paks (draw refunded)

83%

Mezokovesd-zsory (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paks at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Mezokovesd-zsory away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paks attack 2.20 + Mezokovesd-zsory defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Mezokovesd-zsory attack 0.67 + Paks defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Paks scores more

67%

level

20%

Mezokovesd-zsory scores more

14%

Paks at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Paks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff