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Paks vs BVSC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Paks
Paks
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
BVSC
BVSC
1/11/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Paks70%
×Draw17%
BVSC13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paks
2.55
BVSC
1.02

Paks creates 150% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Paks
3.11
BVSC
0.67

allows per match

Paks
1.37
BVSC
2.00

finishing

Paks+0.00on par
BVSC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paks ↓

BVSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Paks or draw
87%
Paks or BVSC
83%
Draw or BVSC
30%

Winning margin

Paks wins by 2+
48%
BVSC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Paks 1+ goals
92%
Paks 2+ goals
72%
Paks 3+ goals
46%
BVSC 1+ goals
64%
BVSC 2+ goals
27%
BVSC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Paks (draw refunded)
84%
BVSC (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paks at home — creates 3.11, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

BVSC away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paks attack 3.11 + BVSC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.55

BVSC attack 0.67 + Paks defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Paks scores more
70%
level
17%
BVSC scores more
13%

Paks at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Paks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paks vs BVSC

Paks and BVSC drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 11, 2025.