Pakruojis 2–0 Žalgiris II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Pakruojis

FT

2 – 0

Žalgiris II

6/2/2019

1 Lyga · Round 10Pakruojo miesto stadionas (Pakruojis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pakruojis16%

×Draw16%

Žalgiris II68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PakruojisExpected goals in this matchŽalgiris II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

3.06

Pakruojis

1.48

Žalgiris II

3.06

Žalgiris II creates 107% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 88 away

0.79

creates per match

1.55

4.57

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Pakruojis

0.79

Žalgiris II

1.55

allows per match

Pakruojis

4.57

Žalgiris II

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pakruojis+0.00on par

Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakruojis ↓

Žalgiris II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Pakruojis or draw

32%

Pakruojis or Žalgiris II

84%

Draw or Žalgiris II

84%

Winning margin

Pakruojis wins by 2+

7%

Žalgiris II wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Pakruojis 1+ goals

77%

Pakruojis 2+ goals

43%

Pakruojis 3+ goals

19%

Žalgiris II 1+ goals

95%

Žalgiris II 2+ goals

80%

Žalgiris II 3+ goals

57%

Draw no bet

Pakruojis (draw refunded)

19%

Žalgiris II (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakruojis at home — creates 0.79, concedes 4.57 · 14 matches

Žalgiris II away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.16 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakruojis attack 0.79 + Žalgiris II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.48

Žalgiris II attack 1.55 + Pakruojis defence 4.57 → ÷2 → 3.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Pakruojis scores more

16%

level

16%

Žalgiris II scores more

68%

Žalgiris II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Žalgiris II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff