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Pakruojis vs Stumbras II — 1 Lyga 2026

Pakruojis
Pakruojis
FT
2 – 0
Stumbras II
Stumbras II
6/17/20181 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 12Pakruojo miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Pakruojis26%
×Draw20%
Stumbras II53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakruojis
1.55
Stumbras II
2.25

Stumbras II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

creates per match

Pakruojis
1.20
Stumbras II
0.91

allows per match

Pakruojis
3.60
Stumbras II
1.91

finishing

Pakruojis+0.00on par
Stumbras II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 73Under: 2773%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 70No: 3070%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakruojis ↓

Stumbras II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Pakruojis or draw
47%
Pakruojis or Stumbras II
80%
Draw or Stumbras II
74%

Winning margin

Pakruojis wins by 2+
12%
Stumbras II wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Pakruojis 1+ goals
79%
Pakruojis 2+ goals
46%
Pakruojis 3+ goals
20%
Stumbras II 1+ goals
89%
Stumbras II 2+ goals
65%
Stumbras II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Pakruojis (draw refunded)
33%
Stumbras II (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakruojis at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

Stumbras II away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakruojis attack 1.20 + Stumbras II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.55

Stumbras II attack 0.91 + Pakruojis defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pakruojis scores more
26%
level
20%
Stumbras II scores more
53%

Stumbras II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stumbras II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pakruojis vs Stumbras II

Pakruojis beat Stumbras II 2-0 in 1 Lyga on June 17, 2018.

The match was played at Pakruojo miesto stadionas in Pakruojis.