Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pakruojis vs Šiauliai — 1 Lyga 2026

Pakruojis
Pakruojis
FT
1 – 1
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
5/12/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 7Pakruojo miesto stadionas (Pakruojis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pakruojis7%
×Draw11%
Šiauliai81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakruojis
0.97
Šiauliai
3.38

Šiauliai creates 248% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 38 away

creates per match

Pakruojis
0.79
Šiauliai
2.18

allows per match

Pakruojis
4.57
Šiauliai
1.16

finishing

Pakruojis+0.00on par
Šiauliai+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakruojis ↓

Šiauliai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–28%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Pakruojis or draw
19%
Pakruojis or Šiauliai
89%
Draw or Šiauliai
93%

Winning margin

Pakruojis wins by 2+
2%
Šiauliai wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Pakruojis 1+ goals
62%
Pakruojis 2+ goals
25%
Pakruojis 3+ goals
7%
Šiauliai 1+ goals
96%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
84%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Pakruojis (draw refunded)
8%
Šiauliai (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakruojis at home — creates 0.79, concedes 4.57 · 14 matches

Šiauliai away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakruojis attack 0.79 + Šiauliai defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.97

Šiauliai attack 2.18 + Pakruojis defence 4.57 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Pakruojis scores more
7%
level
11%
Šiauliai scores more
81%

Šiauliai at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Pakruojis 1–1 Šiauliai

Pakruojis and Šiauliai drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Pakruojo miesto stadionas (Pakruojis).