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Pakruojis vs BFA — 1 Lyga 2026

Pakruojis
Pakruojis
FT
2 – 3
BFA
BFA
7/3/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 15Pakruojo miesto stadionas (Pakruojis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pakruojis16%
×Draw16%
BFA68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakruojis
1.42
BFA
2.96

BFA creates 108% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 104 away

creates per match

Pakruojis
0.79
BFA
1.34

allows per match

Pakruojis
4.57
BFA
2.05

finishing

Pakruojis+0.00on par
BFA+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakruojis ↓

BFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Pakruojis or draw
32%
Pakruojis or BFA
84%
Draw or BFA
84%

Winning margin

Pakruojis wins by 2+
7%
BFA wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Pakruojis 1+ goals
76%
Pakruojis 2+ goals
41%
Pakruojis 3+ goals
17%
BFA 1+ goals
95%
BFA 2+ goals
79%
BFA 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Pakruojis (draw refunded)
19%
BFA (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakruojis at home — creates 0.79, concedes 4.57 · 14 matches

BFA away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakruojis attack 0.79 + BFA defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.42

BFA attack 1.34 + Pakruojis defence 4.57 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Pakruojis scores more
16%
level
16%
BFA scores more
68%

BFA at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "BFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Pakruojis 2–3 BFA

BFA beat Pakruojis 3-2 in 1 Lyga on July 3, 2019.

The match was played at Pakruojo miesto stadionas (Pakruojis).