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Pakistan W vs Saudi Arabia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Pakistan W
Pakistan W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Saudi Arabia W
Saudi Arabia W
A. Al-Hawsawi 90+7'
9/24/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2King Fahd Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pakistan W56%
×Draw24%
Saudi Arabia W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakistan W
1.67
Saudi Arabia W
0.88

Pakistan W creates 90% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Pakistan W
2.25
Saudi Arabia W
1.25

allows per match

Pakistan W
0.50
Saudi Arabia W
1.08

finishing

Pakistan W+0.00on par
Saudi Arabia W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakistan W ↓

Saudi Arabia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pakistan W or draw
80%
Pakistan W or Saudi Arabia W
76%
Draw or Saudi Arabia W
44%

Winning margin

Pakistan W wins by 2+
31%
Saudi Arabia W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pakistan W 1+ goals
81%
Pakistan W 2+ goals
50%
Pakistan W 3+ goals
23%
Saudi Arabia W 1+ goals
59%
Saudi Arabia W 2+ goals
22%
Saudi Arabia W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pakistan W (draw refunded)
74%
Saudi Arabia W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakistan W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Saudi Arabia W away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakistan W attack 2.25 + Saudi Arabia W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.67

Saudi Arabia W attack 1.25 + Pakistan W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pakistan W scores more
56%
level
24%
Saudi Arabia W scores more
20%

Pakistan W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pakistan W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
A. Al-Hawsawi← A. Al-Hawsawi
63'
M. Alsaiari← M. Alsaiari
78'
T. Al-Zahrani← T. Al-Zahrani
78'
D. Abu Laban← D. Abu Laban
90+7'
A. Al-Hawsawi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Pakistan W 0–1 Saudi Arabia W

Saudi Arabia W beat Pakistan W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on September 24, 2023.

Goals: A. Al-Hawsawi (90+7').

The match was played at King Fahd Sport City Stadium in Ta'if.