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Pakistan W vs Laos W — Friendlies Women 2026

Pakistan W
Pakistan W
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Laos W
Laos W
Unknown 120+5' (pen), 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen), 60'
Unknown 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen)
C. Xayapaserd 64'
9/28/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2King Fahd Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pakistan W86%
×Draw11%
Laos W3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakistan W
2.75
Laos W
0.38

Pakistan W creates 624% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pakistan W
2.25
Laos W
0.25

allows per match

Pakistan W
0.50
Laos W
3.25

finishing

Pakistan W+0.00on par
Laos W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakistan W ↓

Laos W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pakistan W or draw
97%
Pakistan W or Laos W
89%
Draw or Laos W
14%

Winning margin

Pakistan W wins by 2+
66%
Laos W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Pakistan W 1+ goals
93%
Pakistan W 2+ goals
75%
Pakistan W 3+ goals
51%
Laos W 1+ goals
32%
Laos W 2+ goals
6%
Laos W 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Pakistan W (draw refunded)
96%
Laos W (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakistan W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Laos W away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakistan W attack 2.25 + Laos W defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.75

Laos W attack 0.25 + Pakistan W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Pakistan W scores more
86%
level
11%
Laos W scores more
3%

Pakistan W at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Pakistan W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
64'
C. Xayapaserd
120+1'
Missed penalty
120+1'
Missed penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+4'
Missed penalty
120+5'
Penalty
120+5'
Missed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pakistan W vs Laos W

Pakistan W and Laos W drew 1-1 in Friendlies Women on September 28, 2023.

Goals: ? (60', 120+2' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+5' pen), C. Xayapaserd (64').

The match was played at King Fahd Sport City Stadium in Ta'if.