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Pakistan W vs Comoros W — Friendlies Women 2020

Pakistan W
Pakistan W
FT
1 – 0
Comoros W
Comoros W
1/11/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pakistan W77%
×Draw17%
Comoros W7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakistan W
2.13
Comoros W
0.45

Pakistan W creates 373% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Pakistan W
2.25
Comoros W
0.40

allows per match

Pakistan W
0.50
Comoros W
2.00

finishing

Pakistan W+0.00on par
Comoros W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakistan W ↓

Comoros W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pakistan W or draw
93%
Pakistan W or Comoros W
83%
Draw or Comoros W
23%

Winning margin

Pakistan W wins by 2+
51%
Comoros W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Pakistan W 1+ goals
88%
Pakistan W 2+ goals
63%
Pakistan W 3+ goals
35%
Comoros W 1+ goals
36%
Comoros W 2+ goals
8%
Comoros W 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Pakistan W (draw refunded)
92%
Comoros W (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakistan W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Comoros W away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakistan W attack 2.25 + Comoros W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Comoros W attack 0.40 + Pakistan W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Pakistan W scores more
77%
level
17%
Comoros W scores more
7%

Pakistan W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Pakistan W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pakistan W vs Comoros W

Pakistan W beat Comoros W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on January 11, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Khobar.