Pakistan 0–1 Kenya: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Pakistan

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kenya

6/14/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pakistan42%

×Draw32%

Kenya26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PakistanExpected goals in this matchKenya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.79

Pakistan

1.08

Kenya

0.79

Pakistan creates 37% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

0.67

creates per match

1.25

0.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Pakistan

0.67

Kenya

1.25

allows per match

Pakistan

0.33

Kenya

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pakistan+0.00on par

Kenya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakistan ↓

Kenya →

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Pakistan or draw

74%

Pakistan or Kenya

68%

Draw or Kenya

58%

Winning margin

Pakistan wins by 2+

17%

Kenya wins by 2+

Team goals

Pakistan 1+ goals

66%

Pakistan 2+ goals

29%

Pakistan 3+ goals

10%

Kenya 1+ goals

55%

Kenya 2+ goals

19%

Kenya 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pakistan (draw refunded)

61%

Kenya (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pakistan at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Kenya away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pakistan attack 0.67 + Kenya defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Kenya attack 1.25 + Pakistan defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pakistan scores more

42%

level

32%

Kenya scores more

26%

Pakistan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pakistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff