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Pakila vs PPS — Suomen Cup 2018

Pakila
Pakila
FT
0 – 3
PPS
PPS
3/12/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Preliminary RoundMyyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pakila8%
×Draw10%
PPS82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakila
1.17
PPS
3.83

PPS creates 227% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Pakila
0.33
PPS
2.00

allows per match

Pakila
5.67
PPS
2.00

finishing

Pakila+0.00on par
PPS+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakila ↓

PPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–37%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Pakila or draw
18%
Pakila or PPS
90%
Draw or PPS
92%

Winning margin

Pakila wins by 2+
3%
PPS wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Pakila 1+ goals
69%
Pakila 2+ goals
33%
Pakila 3+ goals
11%
PPS 1+ goals
98%
PPS 2+ goals
88%
PPS 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Pakila (draw refunded)
8%
PPS (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakila at home — creates 0.33, concedes 5.67 · 3 matches

PPS away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakila attack 0.33 + PPS defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

PPS attack 2.00 + Pakila defence 5.67 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Pakila scores more
8%
level
10%
PPS scores more
82%

PPS at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "PPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Pakila 0–3 PPS

PPS beat Pakila 3-0 in Suomen Cup on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion in Vantaa.