Pakhtakor 2–1 Xorazm: Result & Stats | Super League

Pakhtakor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Xorazm

V. Bubanja 90' (OG)

I. Sergeev 24'

T. Ismoilov 5'

5/25/2025

Super League · Round 11Pakhtakor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Pakhtakor56%

×Draw24%

Xorazm21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PakhtakorExpected goals in this matchXorazm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.95

Pakhtakor

1.73

Xorazm

0.95

Pakhtakor creates 82% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 23 away

2.20

creates per match

1.04

0.85

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Pakhtakor

2.20

Xorazm

1.04

allows per match

Pakhtakor

0.85

Xorazm

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Xorazm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Xorazm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw

79%

Pakhtakor or Xorazm

76%

Draw or Xorazm

44%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

31%

Xorazm wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

82%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

52%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

25%

Xorazm 1+ goals

61%

Xorazm 2+ goals

25%

Xorazm 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

73%

Xorazm (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.85 · 98 matches

Xorazm away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 2.20 + Xorazm defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.73

Xorazm attack 1.04 + Pakhtakor defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pakhtakor scores more

56%

level

24%

Xorazm scores more

21%

Pakhtakor at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

T. Ismoilov↳ A. Khusinov

24'

38'

52'

55'

62'

65'

K. Alizhonov← D. Abdullaev

65'

D. Khamdamov← M. Urinboev

65'

B. Riascos← B. Resan

70'

N. Shevchenko← Jhonatan

78'

A. Buriev← S. Sobirkhuzhaev

78'

F. Narh← M. Bobodzhonov

84'

S. Shaakhmedov← J. Azimov

87'

S. Shaakhmedov

90+1'

D. Ezhov← T. Ismoilov

90'

V. BubanjaOwn goal

Pakhtakor

Xorazm

1

Mukhammad

27

Toshpulat

5

Juraev

15

🥅

Bubanja

88

A

Khusinov

8

Tursunkul

9

▼

Azimov

11

Iminov

7

⚽

▼

Ismoilov

77

Abdullazh

10

▼

Bobodzhon

19

▼

Jhonatan

20

▼

Abdullaev

27

▼

55

77

4

9

22

21

A

▼

Resan

11

⚽

Sergeev

6

▼

Urinboev

65'▲K. Alizhonov←▼D. Abdullaev

65'▲D. Khamdamov←▼M. Urinboev

65'▲B. Riascos←▼B. Resan

70'▲N. Shevchenko←▼Jhonatan

78'▲A. Buriev←▼S. Sobirkhuzhaev

Pakhtakor substitutes

1Shevchenko5Khamraliev7Alizhonov15Ortikboev17Khamdamov23Buriev30Jurakuziev44Makhamadzhonov94Riascos

78'▲F. Narh←▼M. Bobodzhonov

84'▲S. Shaakhmedov←▼J. Azimov

90+1'▲D. Ezhov←▼T. Ismoilov

Xorazm substitutes

12Kobulzhanov20Ezhov99Samiev18Narh17Asadullaev22Shaakhmedov79Akhrorov4Ibrokhimov6Fazliddinov