Pakhtakor 3–1 Turan: Result & Stats | Super League

Pakhtakor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Turan

K. Erkinov 90+2'

S. Temirov 62'

D. Ćeran 26'

V. Kosmynin 49'

9/25/2021

Super League · Round 20Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pakhtakor68%

×Draw20%

Turan12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PakhtakorExpected goals in this matchTuran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.70

Pakhtakor

1.99

Turan

0.70

Pakhtakor creates 184% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 13 away

2.20

creates per match

0.54

0.85

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Pakhtakor

2.20

Turan

0.54

allows per match

Pakhtakor

0.85

Turan

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Turan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Turan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw

88%

Pakhtakor or Turan

80%

Draw or Turan

32%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

42%

Turan wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

86%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

59%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

32%

Turan 1+ goals

50%

Turan 2+ goals

16%

Turan 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

85%

Turan (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.85 · 98 matches

Turan away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 2.20 + Turan defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.99

Turan attack 0.54 + Pakhtakor defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Pakhtakor scores more

68%

level

20%

Turan scores more

12%

Pakhtakor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

A. Toshtemirov

26'

D. Ćeran

46'

Kim Bo-Yong← D. Umirov

49'

61'

62'

65'

73'

75'

75'

O. Zokirov← Kim Bo-Yong

75'

S. Abdullajonov← S. Babić

75'

S. Ermatov← I. Toshpulatov

79'

K. Erkinov← A. Turgunboev

84'

S. Ermatov

90'

S. Ermatov

90+4'

D. Kholmatov← D. Khamdamov

90+4'

K. Iminov← S. Mukhiddinov

90+2'

K. Erkinov

Pakhtakor

Turan

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: P. Huistra

79'▲K. Erkinov←▼A. Turgunboev

90+4'▲D. Kholmatov←▼D. Khamdamov

90+4'▲K. Iminov←▼S. Mukhiddinov

Pakhtakor substitutes

ErkinovKholmatovIminovFayzullayevMatićChobanovAzmiddinovKuvvatov

Manager: I. Shkvyrin

46'▲Kim Bo-Yong←▼D. Umirov

75'▲O. Zokirov←▼Kim Bo-Yong

75'▲S. Abdullajonov←▼S. Babić

75'▲S. Ermatov←▼I. Toshpulatov

Turan substitutes

Bo-YongZokirovAbdullajonovErmatovOrtikovIsmoilovChakalovKomilovOkhunjonov