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Pakhtakor vs Tractor Sazi — AFC Champions League 2018

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
4/14/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group B - 1Sharjah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Pakhtakor34%
×Draw27%
Tractor Sazi40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
1.22
Tractor Sazi
1.35

Tractor Sazi creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
1.52
Tractor Sazi
1.27

allows per match

Pakhtakor
1.43
Tractor Sazi
0.91

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Tractor Sazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
60%
Pakhtakor or Tractor Sazi
73%
Draw or Tractor Sazi
66%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
14%
Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
70%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
34%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
12%
Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
74%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
39%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
46%
Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 1.52 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.22

Tractor Sazi attack 1.27 + Pakhtakor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
34%
level
27%
Tractor Sazi scores more
40%

Tractor Sazi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pakhtakor vs Tractor Sazi

Pakhtakor and Tractor Sazi drew 3-3 in AFC Champions League on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Sharjah Stadium in Sharjah.