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Pakhtakor vs Struga — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Struga
Struga
M. Angeletti 87' (OG)
Maudo 19'
1/22/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pakhtakor27%
×Draw24%
Struga49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
1.17
Struga
1.67

Struga creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
1.33
Struga
1.00

allows per match

Pakhtakor
2.33
Struga
1.00

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Struga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Struga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
51%
Pakhtakor or Struga
76%
Draw or Struga
73%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
11%
Struga wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
69%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
33%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
11%
Struga 1+ goals
81%
Struga 2+ goals
50%
Struga 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
35%
Struga (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Struga away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 1.33 + Struga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Struga attack 1.00 + Pakhtakor defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
27%
level
24%
Struga scores more
49%

Struga at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Struga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Maudo
87'
M. AngelettiOwn goal
Pakhtakor
Struga
Pedro Moreira
Manager: Pedro Moreira
Bledi Shkembi
Manager: Bledi Shkembi

Friendlies Clubs: Pakhtakor 1–1 Struga

Pakhtakor and Struga drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 22, 2026.

Goals: Maudo (19'), M. Angeletti (87' o.g.).