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Pakhtakor vs Nasaf — Super League 2026

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nasaf
Nasaf
11/3/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Pakhtakor50%
×Draw25%
Nasaf25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
1.62
Nasaf
1.07

Pakhtakor creates 51% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 99 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
2.32
Nasaf
1.31

allows per match

Pakhtakor
0.84
Nasaf
0.92

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Nasaf+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Nasaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
75%
Pakhtakor or Nasaf
75%
Draw or Nasaf
50%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
26%
Nasaf wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
80%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
48%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
22%
Nasaf 1+ goals
66%
Nasaf 2+ goals
29%
Nasaf 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
67%
Nasaf (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.84 · 100 matches

Nasaf away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.92 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 2.32 + Nasaf defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.62

Nasaf attack 1.31 + Pakhtakor defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
50%
level
25%
Nasaf scores more
25%

Pakhtakor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pakhtakor vs Nasaf

Pakhtakor and Nasaf drew 1-1 in Super League on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion in Tashkent.