Nasaf 1–0 Pakhtakor: Result & Stats | Super League

Nasaf

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pakhtakor

8/10/2024

Super League · Round 15Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Nasaf36%

×Draw27%

Pakhtakor36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NasafExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

Nasaf

1.25

Pakhtakor

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 100 away

1.64

creates per match

1.85

0.65

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Nasaf

1.64

Pakhtakor

1.85

allows per match

Nasaf

0.65

Pakhtakor

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nasaf+0.00on par

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasaf ↓

Pakhtakor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nasaf or draw

64%

Nasaf or Pakhtakor

73%

Draw or Pakhtakor

64%

Winning margin

Nasaf wins by 2+

16%

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nasaf 1+ goals

71%

Nasaf 2+ goals

36%

Nasaf 3+ goals

13%

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

71%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

36%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nasaf (draw refunded)

50%

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasaf at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.65 · 99 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.87 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasaf attack 1.64 + Pakhtakor defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.25

Pakhtakor attack 1.85 + Nasaf defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nasaf scores more

36%

level

27%

Pakhtakor scores more

36%

Nasaf at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff