Pakhtakor 2–1 Esteghlal FC: Result & Stats

Pakhtakor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Esteghlal FC

E. Derdiyok 47'

D. Ćeran 43'

A. Karimi 32'

9/26/2020

AFC Champions League · 8th FinalsAl Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Pakhtakor41%

×Draw25%

Esteghlal FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PakhtakorExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.39

Pakhtakor

1.54

Esteghlal FC

1.39

Pakhtakor creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

1.52

creates per match

1.35

1.43

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Pakhtakor

1.52

Esteghlal FC

1.35

allows per match

Pakhtakor

1.43

Esteghlal FC

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Esteghlal FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw

66%

Pakhtakor or Esteghlal FC

75%

Draw or Esteghlal FC

59%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

20%

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

79%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

45%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

20%

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals

75%

Esteghlal FC 2+ goals

40%

Esteghlal FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

54%

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 1.52 + Esteghlal FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Esteghlal FC attack 1.35 + Pakhtakor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pakhtakor scores more

41%

level

25%

Esteghlal FC scores more

34%

Pakhtakor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

K. Alidjanov

Pakhtakor · D

7.5

Match Events

4'

Amir Arsalan Motahari

5'

Egor Krimets

32'

A. Karimi

43'

D. Ćeran↳ K. Alidjanov

47'

E. Derdiyok↳ D. Khamdamov

53'

A. Rezavand← A. Motahari

68'

Z. Moradi← F. Esmaeili

73'

J. Sidikov← D. Khamdamov

73'

I. Sergeev← E. Derdiyok

74'

77'

79'

84'

84'

V. Kozak← S. Sobirkhujaev

87'

Milad Zakipour

90'

Mehdi Ghayedi

90+2'

Abror Ismailov← K. Alidjanov

90+1'

S. Azamov← F. Sayfiyev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PakhtakorEsteghlal

Overview

65%Possession35%

10Total Shots6

7Corners5

14Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots6

4On Target4

2Off Target1

4Blocked1

4Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

601Total Passes314

515Accurate Passes230

86%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides3