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Pakhtakor vs Dinamo Zagreb — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
CANC
10:00
Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
1/12/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pakhtakor9%
×Draw13%
Dinamo Zagreb78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
0.97
Dinamo Zagreb
3.06

Dinamo Zagreb creates 215% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
1.33
Dinamo Zagreb
3.80

allows per match

Pakhtakor
2.33
Dinamo Zagreb
0.60

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 76Under: 2476%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Dinamo Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
22%
Pakhtakor or Dinamo Zagreb
87%
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb
91%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
3%
Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
62%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
25%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
7%
Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals
95%
Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
80%
Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
10%
Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Dinamo Zagreb away — creates 3.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 1.33 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Dinamo Zagreb attack 3.80 + Pakhtakor defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
9%
level
13%
Dinamo Zagreb scores more
78%

Dinamo Zagreb at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pakhtakor vs Dinamo Zagreb — Match Preview

Pakhtakor face Dinamo Zagreb on January 12, 2025 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.