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Pakhtakor vs Bunyodkor — Super League 2026

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
Preview
15:00
Bunyodkor
Bunyodkor
10/9/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Pakhtakor Central Stadium
Big match
54%
Pakhtakor
model favours
54%23%23%

Pakhtakor win just 51% against the top half (vs 76% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Pakhtakor54%
×Draw23%
Bunyodkor23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
1.78
Bunyodkor
1.07

Pakhtakor creates 66% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 96 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
2.20
Bunyodkor
1.29

allows per match

Pakhtakor
0.85
Bunyodkor
1.36

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Bunyodkor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
77%
Pakhtakor or Bunyodkor
77%
Draw or Bunyodkor
46%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
30%
Bunyodkor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
83%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
53%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
26%
Bunyodkor 1+ goals
66%
Bunyodkor 2+ goals
29%
Bunyodkor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
70%
Bunyodkor (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.85 · 98 matches

Bunyodkor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.36 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 2.20 + Bunyodkor defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.78

Bunyodkor attack 1.29 + Pakhtakor defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
54%
level
23%
Bunyodkor scores more
23%

Pakhtakor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Pakhtakor
WDDDW
Bunyodkor
LLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pakhtakor face Bunyodkor (Super League)

Super League returns with Pakhtakor hosting Bunyodkor. Match starts October 9, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Pakhtakor host Bunyodkor at Pakhtakor Central Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.