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Pakhtakor vs Bunyodkor — Super League 2026

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Bunyodkor
Bunyodkor
12/1/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Pakhtakor55%
×Draw23%
Bunyodkor22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
1.83
Bunyodkor
1.06

Pakhtakor creates 73% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 100 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
2.32
Bunyodkor
1.29

allows per match

Pakhtakor
0.84
Bunyodkor
1.34

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Bunyodkor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
78%
Pakhtakor or Bunyodkor
77%
Draw or Bunyodkor
45%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
31%
Bunyodkor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
84%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
54%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
28%
Bunyodkor 1+ goals
65%
Bunyodkor 2+ goals
29%
Bunyodkor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
72%
Bunyodkor (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.84 · 100 matches

Bunyodkor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 2.32 + Bunyodkor defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.83

Bunyodkor attack 1.29 + Pakhtakor defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
55%
level
23%
Bunyodkor scores more
22%

Pakhtakor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Pakhtakor 2–3 Bunyodkor

Bunyodkor beat Pakhtakor 3-2 in Super League on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion in Tashkent.