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Pakhtakor vs Andijan — Super League 2026

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
Preview
15:00
Andijan
Andijan
9/4/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Pakhtakor Central Stadium
Big match
60%
Pakhtakor
model favours
60%22%18%

Pakhtakor win just 51% against the top half (vs 76% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Pakhtakor60%
×Draw22%
Andijan18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
1.89
Andijan
0.91

Pakhtakor creates 108% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 88 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
2.20
Andijan
0.97

allows per match

Pakhtakor
0.85
Andijan
1.58

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Andijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Andijan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
82%
Pakhtakor or Andijan
78%
Draw or Andijan
40%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
36%
Andijan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
85%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
56%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
29%
Andijan 1+ goals
60%
Andijan 2+ goals
23%
Andijan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
77%
Andijan (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.85 · 98 matches

Andijan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.58 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 2.20 + Andijan defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.89

Andijan attack 0.97 + Pakhtakor defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
60%
level
22%
Andijan scores more
18%

Pakhtakor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Pakhtakor
WDDDW
Andijan
DLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Pakhtakor host Andijan

September 4, 2026: Pakhtakor take on Andijan in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Pakhtakor host Andijan at Pakhtakor Central Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.