Pakhtakor 3–1 Andijan: Result & Stats

Pakhtakor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Andijan

Kimi Merk 90+4'

M. O'rinboyev 61'

U. Khoshimov 15'

B. Abdumannonov 35'

10/31/2024

Super League · Round 23Stadion Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Pakhtakor59%

×Draw22%

Andijan19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PakhtakorExpected goals in this matchAndijan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.96

Pakhtakor

1.89

Andijan

0.96

Pakhtakor creates 97% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

2.17

creates per match

1.09

0.83

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Pakhtakor

2.17

Andijan

1.09

allows per match

Pakhtakor

0.83

Andijan

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Andijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Andijan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw

81%

Pakhtakor or Andijan

78%

Draw or Andijan

41%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

35%

Andijan wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

85%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

56%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

29%

Andijan 1+ goals

62%

Andijan 2+ goals

25%

Andijan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

76%

Andijan (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Andijan away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 2.17 + Andijan defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.89

Andijan attack 1.09 + Pakhtakor defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pakhtakor scores more

59%

level

22%

Andijan scores more

19%

Pakhtakor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

U. Khoshimov

35'

B. Abdumannonov

46'

K. Alijonov← D. Saitov

54'

O. Jurakuziev

56'

D. Abdumannopov← D. Khamdamov

56'

M. O'rinboyev← O. Joraqoziyev

61'

M. O'rinboyev

63'

A. Komilov

72'

B. Askarov← S. Sobirkhojaev

73'

F. Sohibjonov← S. Azimov

73'

I. Abdiganiyev← D. Temirov

81'

Kimi Merk← D. Ćeran

87'

I. Alijanov← A. Komilov

87'

L. Pecelj← B. Abdumannonov

87'

S. Samiev← M. Toirov

90+4'

Kimi Merk

Pakhtakor

Andijan

Atkhamov

Mamatkazi

Bubanja

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Shatskikh

46'▲K. Alijonov←▼D. Saitov

56'▲D. Abdumannopov←▼D. Khamdamov

56'▲M. O'rinboyev←▼O. Joraqoziyev

72'▲B. Askarov←▼S. Sobirkhojaev

81'▲Kimi Merk←▼D. Ćeran

Pakhtakor substitutes

AlijonovAbdumannopovO'rinboyevAskarovMerkOrtiqboyevKholdorkhonovPavlyuchenkoAzmiddinov

Manager: A. Khomyakov

73'▲F. Sohibjonov←▼S. Azimov

73'▲I. Abdiganiyev←▼D. Temirov

87'▲I. Alijanov←▼A. Komilov

87'▲L. Pecelj←▼B. Abdumannonov

87'▲S. Samiev←▼M. Toirov

Andijan substitutes

SohibjonovAbdiganiyevAlijanovPeceljSamievNurymbetMamatkazinZgurskiyKomilov

Super League: Pakhtakor 3–1 Andijan

Pakhtakor beat Andijan 3-1 in Super League on October 31, 2024.

Goals: U. Khoshimov (15'), B. Abdumannonov (35'), M. O'rinboyev (61'), Kimi Merk (90+4').

The match was played at Stadion Majmuasi in Tashkent.

Pakhtakor vs Andijan — Super League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Pakhtakor 3–1 Andijan