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Pakhtakor vs Al-Wasl FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Wasl FC
Al-Wasl FC
S. Bouftini 64'
9/17/2024AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Stage - 1Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Pakhtakor54%
×Draw23%
Al-Wasl FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
1.85
Al-Wasl FC
1.13

Pakhtakor creates 64% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
1.52
Al-Wasl FC
0.82

allows per match

Pakhtakor
1.43
Al-Wasl FC
2.18

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Al-Wasl FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
77%
Pakhtakor or Al-Wasl FC
77%
Draw or Al-Wasl FC
46%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
31%
Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
84%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
55%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
28%
Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals
68%
Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals
31%
Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
70%
Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Al-Wasl FC away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 1.52 + Al-Wasl FC defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.85

Al-Wasl FC attack 0.82 + Pakhtakor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
54%
level
23%
Al-Wasl FC scores more
23%

Pakhtakor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
S. BouftiniAl-Wasl FCAl-Wasl FC · D
7.9

Match Events

9'
Dragan CeranCard reviewed
11'
Dragan Ceran
57'
Caio Canedo
64'
S. Bouftini↳ N. Giménez
70'
H. Seferović← Caio Canedo
72'
I. Ibragimov← S. Sobirkhojaev
72'
U. Adhamzoda← D. Khamdamov
81'
Salem Al Azizi← T. Uchino
81'
Ali Salmin← Ali Saleh
83'
Ibrokhim Ibrokhimov
85'
M. Usmonov← D. Abdumannopov
90+7'
Mukhammadali Usmonov

Possession

63%Pakhtakor

Shots

7Pakhtakor

Pass accuracy

56%Pakhtakor

Statistics

PakhtakorAl-Wasl
Overview
63%Possession37%
7Total Shots12
2Corners5
9Fouls12
Shots
7Total Shots12
1On Target4
2Off Target4
4Blocked4
2Inside Box7
5Outside Box5
Passing
63%Possession37%
446Total Passes253
357Accurate Passes162
80%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls12
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Pakhtakor vs Al-Wasl FC

Al-Wasl FC beat Pakhtakor 1-0 in AFC Champions League on September 17, 2024.

Goals: S. Bouftini (64').

Pakhtakor controlled possession (63%) and registered 7 shots to 12.

The match was played at Milliy Stadion in Tashkent.