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Pakhtakor vs Al Taawon — AFC Champions League 2018

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
FT
5 – 4
HT: 3 – 1
Al Taawon
Al Taawon
4/26/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6King Abdullah Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pakhtakor38%
×Draw25%
Al Taawon36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
1.41
Al Taawon
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 7 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
1.52
Al Taawon
1.29

allows per match

Pakhtakor
1.43
Al Taawon
1.29

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Al Taawon+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Al Taawon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
64%
Pakhtakor or Al Taawon
75%
Draw or Al Taawon
62%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
18%
Al Taawon wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
76%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
41%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
17%
Al Taawon 1+ goals
74%
Al Taawon 2+ goals
39%
Al Taawon 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
52%
Al Taawon (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Al Taawon away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 1.52 + Al Taawon defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Al Taawon attack 1.29 + Pakhtakor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
38%
level
25%
Al Taawon scores more
36%

Pakhtakor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Pakhtakor 5–4 Al Taawon

Pakhtakor beat Al Taawon 5-4 in AFC Champions League on April 26, 2022.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Buraidah.