Pakhtakor 1–0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya: Result & Stats

Pakhtakor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

4/29/2021

AFC Champions League · Group B - 6Sharjah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Pakhtakor47%

×Draw27%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PakhtakorExpected goals in this matchAl Quwa Al Jawiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.96

Pakhtakor

1.41

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

0.96

Pakhtakor creates 47% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

1.52

creates per match

0.50

1.43

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Pakhtakor

1.52

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

0.50

allows per match

Pakhtakor

1.43

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw

74%

Pakhtakor or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

73%

Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

53%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

23%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

76%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

41%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

17%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals

62%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals

25%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

65%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 1.52 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.41

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 0.50 + Pakhtakor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pakhtakor scores more

47%

level

27%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more

26%

Pakhtakor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff