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Pakhtakor vs Ahal — AFC Champions League 2018

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ahal
Ahal
10/24/2023AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group A - 3Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pakhtakor59%
×Draw21%
Ahal19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
2.01
Ahal
1.05

Pakhtakor creates 91% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
1.52
Ahal
0.67

allows per match

Pakhtakor
1.43
Ahal
2.50

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Ahal+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Ahal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
81%
Pakhtakor or Ahal
79%
Draw or Ahal
41%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
36%
Ahal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
87%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
59%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
32%
Ahal 1+ goals
65%
Ahal 2+ goals
28%
Ahal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
76%
Ahal (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Ahal away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 1.52 + Ahal defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.01

Ahal attack 0.67 + Pakhtakor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
59%
level
21%
Ahal scores more
19%

Pakhtakor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Pakhtakor 3–0 Ahal

Pakhtakor beat Ahal 3-0 in AFC Champions League on October 24, 2023.

The match was played at Milliy Stadion in Tashkent.