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Pakhtakor II vs Metalourg — Pro League A 2026

Pakhtakor II
Pakhtakor II
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Metalourg
Metalourg
N. Iminjonov 86'
S. Saidnurullaev 83'
Maxuel Cassio 76'
B. Jocic 74'
A. Akhmedov 26'
4/25/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pakhtakor II12%
×Draw19%
Metalourg69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor II
0.78
Metalourg
2.15

Metalourg creates 176% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor II
0.17
Metalourg
1.80

allows per match

Pakhtakor II
2.50
Metalourg
1.40

finishing

Pakhtakor II+0.00on par
Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor II ↓

Metalourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pakhtakor II or draw
31%
Pakhtakor II or Metalourg
81%
Draw or Metalourg
88%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor II wins by 2+
4%
Metalourg wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Pakhtakor II 1+ goals
54%
Pakhtakor II 2+ goals
18%
Pakhtakor II 3+ goals
4%
Metalourg 1+ goals
88%
Metalourg 2+ goals
63%
Metalourg 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor II (draw refunded)
15%
Metalourg (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor II at home — creates 0.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Metalourg away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor II attack 0.17 + Metalourg defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.78

Metalourg attack 1.80 + Pakhtakor II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Pakhtakor II scores more
12%
level
19%
Metalourg scores more
69%

Metalourg at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
A. Akhmedov
74'
B. Jocic
76'
Maxuel Cassio
83'
S. Saidnurullaev
86'
N. Iminjonov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pakhtakor II vs Metalourg

Metalourg beat Pakhtakor II 5-0 in Pro League A on April 25, 2026.

Goals: A. Akhmedov (26'), B. Jocic (74'), Maxuel Cassio (76'), S. Saidnurullaev (83'), N. Iminjonov (86').