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Pakhtakor II vs FarDu — Pro League A 2026

Pakhtakor II
Pakhtakor II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FarDu
FarDu
M. Abelfazov 57' (pen)
4/7/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 1Pakhtakor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pakhtakor II21%
×Draw24%
FarDu54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor II
0.96
FarDu
1.69

FarDu creates 76% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor II
0.17
FarDu
0.88

allows per match

Pakhtakor II
2.50
FarDu
1.75

finishing

Pakhtakor II+0.00on par
FarDu+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor II ↓

FarDu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pakhtakor II or draw
46%
Pakhtakor II or FarDu
76%
Draw or FarDu
79%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor II wins by 2+
7%
FarDu wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Pakhtakor II 1+ goals
62%
Pakhtakor II 2+ goals
25%
Pakhtakor II 3+ goals
7%
FarDu 1+ goals
82%
FarDu 2+ goals
50%
FarDu 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor II (draw refunded)
28%
FarDu (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor II at home — creates 0.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

FarDu away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor II attack 0.17 + FarDu defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

FarDu attack 0.88 + Pakhtakor II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Pakhtakor II scores more
21%
level
24%
FarDu scores more
54%

FarDu at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FarDu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
M. AbelfazovPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League A: Pakhtakor II 0–1 FarDu

FarDu beat Pakhtakor II 1-0 in Pro League A on April 7, 2026.

Goals: M. Abelfazov (57' pen).

The match was played at Pakhtakor Central Stadium in Tashkent.