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Pakhtakor II vs BuxDu — Pro League A 2026

Pakhtakor II
Pakhtakor II
Preview
14:00
BuxDu
BuxDu
10/26/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 24
37%
Pakhtakor II
model favours
37%27%36%
1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pakhtakor II37%
×Draw27%
BuxDu36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor II
1.28
BuxDu
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor II
0.17
BuxDu
0.00

allows per match

Pakhtakor II
2.50
BuxDu
2.40

finishing

Pakhtakor II+0.00on par
BuxDu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor II ↓

BuxDu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pakhtakor II or draw
64%
Pakhtakor II or BuxDu
73%
Draw or BuxDu
63%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor II wins by 2+
16%
BuxDu wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pakhtakor II 1+ goals
72%
Pakhtakor II 2+ goals
37%
Pakhtakor II 3+ goals
14%
BuxDu 1+ goals
71%
BuxDu 2+ goals
36%
BuxDu 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor II (draw refunded)
51%
BuxDu (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor II at home — creates 0.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

BuxDu away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor II attack 0.17 + BuxDu defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

BuxDu attack 0.00 + Pakhtakor II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pakhtakor II scores more
37%
level
27%
BuxDu scores more
36%

Pakhtakor II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pakhtakor II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
II
LLLLL
BuxDu
WWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pakhtakor II vs BuxDu — Match Preview

Pakhtakor II face BuxDu on October 26, 2026 in this Pro League A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.