BuxDu 2–0 Pakhtakor II: Result & Stats

BuxDu

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pakhtakor II

I. Boysariev 90+2'

S. Salimov 12'

7/24/2026

Pro League A · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

BuxDu49%

×Draw24%

Pakhtakor II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BuxDuExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.25

BuxDu

1.75

Pakhtakor II

1.25

BuxDu creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

BuxDu

1.50

Pakhtakor II

1.00

allows per match

BuxDu

1.50

Pakhtakor II

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BuxDu+0.00on par

Pakhtakor II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BuxDu ↓

Pakhtakor II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

BuxDu or draw

73%

BuxDu or Pakhtakor II

76%

Draw or Pakhtakor II

51%

Winning margin

BuxDu wins by 2+

27%

Pakhtakor II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

BuxDu 1+ goals

83%

BuxDu 2+ goals

52%

BuxDu 3+ goals

25%

Pakhtakor II 1+ goals

71%

Pakhtakor II 2+ goals

36%

Pakhtakor II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

BuxDu (draw refunded)

64%

Pakhtakor II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BuxDu at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Pakhtakor II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BuxDu attack 1.50 + Pakhtakor II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Pakhtakor II attack 1.00 + BuxDu defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

BuxDu scores more

49%

level

24%

Pakhtakor II scores more

27%

BuxDu at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "BuxDu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

S. Salimov

90+2'

I. Boysariev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff