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Pakchong vs Don Mueang — FA Cup 2018

Pakchong
Pakchong
FT
0 – 1
Don Mueang
Don Mueang
11/7/2020FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pakchong44%
×Draw21%
Don Mueang35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakchong
2.13
Don Mueang
1.88

Pakchong creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pakchong
1.25
Don Mueang
1.00

allows per match

Pakchong
2.75
Don Mueang
3.00

finishing

Pakchong+0.00on par
Don Mueang+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakchong ↓

Don Mueang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Pakchong or draw
65%
Pakchong or Don Mueang
79%
Draw or Don Mueang
56%

Winning margin

Pakchong wins by 2+
25%
Don Mueang wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pakchong 1+ goals
88%
Pakchong 2+ goals
63%
Pakchong 3+ goals
35%
Don Mueang 1+ goals
85%
Don Mueang 2+ goals
56%
Don Mueang 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Pakchong (draw refunded)
56%
Don Mueang (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakchong at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Don Mueang away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakchong attack 1.25 + Don Mueang defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Don Mueang attack 1.00 + Pakchong defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pakchong scores more
44%
level
21%
Don Mueang scores more
35%

Pakchong at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pakchong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Pakchong 0–1 Don Mueang

Don Mueang beat Pakchong 1-0 in FA Cup on November 7, 2020.