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Paju Citizen vs Yangju Citizen — FA Cup 2019

Paju Citizen
Paju Citizen
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yangju Citizen
Yangju Citizen
5/9/2020FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundPaju Public Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Paju Citizen61%
×Draw21%
Yangju Citizen18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paju Citizen
2.06
Yangju Citizen
1.01

Paju Citizen creates 104% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Paju Citizen
2.29
Yangju Citizen
1.17

allows per match

Paju Citizen
0.86
Yangju Citizen
1.83

finishing

Paju Citizen+0.00on par
Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paju Citizen ↓

Yangju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Paju Citizen or draw
82%
Paju Citizen or Yangju Citizen
79%
Draw or Yangju Citizen
39%

Winning margin

Paju Citizen wins by 2+
38%
Yangju Citizen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Paju Citizen 1+ goals
87%
Paju Citizen 2+ goals
61%
Paju Citizen 3+ goals
34%
Yangju Citizen 1+ goals
64%
Yangju Citizen 2+ goals
27%
Yangju Citizen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)
77%
Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paju Citizen at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Yangju Citizen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paju Citizen attack 2.29 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.06

Yangju Citizen attack 1.17 + Paju Citizen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Paju Citizen scores more
61%
level
21%
Yangju Citizen scores more
18%

Paju Citizen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Paju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Paju Citizen 0–0 Yangju Citizen

Paju Citizen and Yangju Citizen drew 0-0 in FA Cup on May 9, 2020.

The match was played at Paju Public Stadium in Paju.