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Paju Citizen vs Siheung Citizen — K3 League 2026

Paju Citizen
Paju Citizen
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Siheung Citizen
Siheung Citizen
Seo Myeong-Sik 79' (OG)
Yu Shin 73', 45'
Lee Ji-Hong 55'
6/29/2025K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 15Paju Public Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Paju Citizen35%
×Draw28%
Siheung Citizen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paju Citizen
1.16
Siheung Citizen
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 61 away

creates per match

Paju Citizen
1.22
Siheung Citizen
1.43

allows per match

Paju Citizen
0.98
Siheung Citizen
1.10

finishing

Paju Citizen+0.00on par
Siheung Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paju Citizen ↓

Siheung Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Paju Citizen or draw
63%
Paju Citizen or Siheung Citizen
72%
Draw or Siheung Citizen
65%

Winning margin

Paju Citizen wins by 2+
14%
Siheung Citizen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Paju Citizen 1+ goals
69%
Paju Citizen 2+ goals
32%
Paju Citizen 3+ goals
11%
Siheung Citizen 1+ goals
70%
Siheung Citizen 2+ goals
34%
Siheung Citizen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)
48%
Siheung Citizen (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paju Citizen at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Siheung Citizen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paju Citizen attack 1.22 + Siheung Citizen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Siheung Citizen attack 1.43 + Paju Citizen defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Paju Citizen scores more
35%
level
28%
Siheung Citizen scores more
37%

Siheung Citizen at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Siheung Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Yu Shin
55'
Lee Ji-Hong
73'
Yu Shin
79'
Seo Myeong-SikOwn goal
Paju
Siheung
Lee Eun-No
Manager: Lee Eun-No
Park Seung-Soo
Manager: Park Seung-Soo

K3 League: Paju Citizen 0–4 Siheung Citizen

Siheung Citizen beat Paju Citizen 4-0 in K3 League on June 29, 2025.

Goals: Yu Shin (45', 73'), Lee Ji-Hong (55'), Seo Myeong-Sik (79' o.g.).

The match was played at Paju Public Stadium in Paju.